Self determination; Southern Sudan vs Khartoum

It seems the new year will commence with the happening of a historical event. ON january 9th 2011, Sudan will hold a referendum that will potentially set the Southern part of the nation as an independent and separate nation from the rest of Sudan. While this might be welcomed with much optimism in the South, it is perceived negatively from Khartoum and some members of the world, who are concern that this might ignite a wave of succession movements in the continent. The Southern population of Sudan has faced constant attack of islamization from the northern Khartoum and has consequently suffered enormously, in terms of human lives and economic factors.  What will it mean for the rest of Sudan if the Oil rich and neglected south is to become an independent nation? What will it mean for the rest of the continent and the ‘international community’?

In the west, in the Darfur region, civilians are scared to participant because of what the government might do to them. Some are leaving and heading back to their hometown or moving to other areas where they feel safe from the Khartoum government.  In fact, one will not be wrong in assuming that Sudan is at a moment where it could easily break into  a devastating civil war as a consequence of the referendum.

Making matters even more complicate, what of the displaced population or refugees in Uganda and Kenya; will they participate? This leaves an enormous proportion of Sudanese whose voices will not be heard because they fear for their lives.

With the requirement of at least 75% vote in favor of independence, Southern Sudan’s hope of self determination seems an impossibility; and agreement between both parties is that turn out needs to be about 60% for the outcome to be valid, which makes sense as it will be the majority.

There is also the risk of the Khartoum refusing to recognize the result of the referendum ( this is in the case that it looses) and this might escalate internal conflicts in the country. That is to say that, although this referendum is important in its timing in that it halted the conflict, the chances of civil war erupting is also higher, given the heated nature of this debate.

The referendum also has the potential to create more conflict in terms of which areas are to be given to which government, etc. Given that natural resources is part of the war perpertuated by Khartoum, it will be in its interest to make sure that it gets the richest areas in terms of resources, especially oil (the south is rich in oil production, which happens to be Sudan’s main source of foreign income as it sells most of its production to China)

The south has received little gain from this oil extraction even though they have at times have to relocate so oil extraction can be increased.

In the case that the referendum becomes a success a new African nation will be born. And similar to the poorest of African nations (although rich in resources) it will be characterized by mass hunger of people, unavailability of services, even as basic as health care, unequal distribution of income that they encounter even from the wealth made from oil production.

At least Southern Sudan needs its chance at self determination. It needs what is not receiving from Khartoum and it seems the only way t get this, is independence. The only fear is that the outcome will not result in separatist movements in other African nations  (such as Nigeria) that face internal divisions.